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DALLAS HOUSING MARKET UPDATE FOR WINTER 2008

Why Now may be the best time to Buy a New Home

by Mike Askins, Realtor & Partner 11/8/2007

 

"In Real Estate, Timing is Everything!"

 

Buyer Update 01/11/2008! Now may be the perfect time to make that new home deal before the remaining new home inventory is sold out! Additionally many existing homes and foreclosures are currently priced at rock bottom prices not seen since 2004. November and December were very active months and many feel Q1 2008 will continue along the same up trend. In addition interest rates are down sharply from 2006 levels. If you are a serious buyer, waiting at this point in time could mean paying more. For sure the jury may still be out as to overall market direction and only time will tell if the real estate market has actually entered phase 1 recovery.

 

Market factors have changed in 2007 that has caused many new home builders to slow down on new construction starts in an effort to dry up inventory and put a floor under new home price erosion. This is especially true in Allen, Frisco, McKinney, Prosper, Melissa and the Collin County region.

 

What all this may mean for buyers in the months ahead will mean steadily rising prices for new construction. Why? Because builders simply won't agree to build a new home unless they can insure a profit for their efforts. Also having less finished 'new' homes available should help builder specs to sell for a higher price.

 

Even though the DFW market is OK (relative to other U.S. markets), it is not as good as it could otherwise could be. Much of the local slow down can be attributed to tighter lending requirements which has reduced the number of qualified home buyers. Much of the bad news coming from the national news really does not directly correlate with what is happening in the DFW market because our home prices are so much less than the national average and hence many forecasters do believe a rebound in the local market will begin much sooner than in other U.S. markets.

 

Currently buyers are realizing 2 excellent buying factors that in past time worked in opposition to each other. LOW INTEREST RATES and LOW HOME PRICES. Normally when rates are down, prices go up. However, 2008 is shaping up to be an exception to this rule and this means deals can be made now while these 2 important factors are both favoring buyers.

 

ARG is committed to helping our clients find exceptional home buying opportunities in addition to helping them find the most competitive area lenders and the most competitive home owners insurance companies. Many of our clients have also benefited from cost savings contractors who can add important upgrades to new homes via an escrow account that is part of your mortgage thereby saving 50% - 70% off builder upgrade pricing.

 

EXAMPLE OF A RECENT EXISTING HOME SALE

 

Back in April and May of 2007 a 4300sf 5/4.5/3 NEW home that closed in April 07 for ~$446K went back on the market 18 days later when the owner was suddenly transferred overseas. This home took 7+ months to sell at a price of ~$413K! This gorgeous modern home is absolutely stunning! But this is only 1 example of what is going on currently in the local market place.

 

The chart below from Hexter-Fair-Title Company shows a general slow down in real estates sales for most locations.

 

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How to Buy LOW and Sell HIGH

Generally speaking the yearly and repeatable "sine wave" pattern affecting real estate prices is simply a factor of supply and demand. More people are in the market in the Spring and Summer than in the Fall and Winter and hence prices tend to be lower in a slower market. No rocket science aspects about this natural market reaction. Therefore if you are a buyer, buying in the "off" season and selling during the peak buying season is a good way to help your personal bottom line.

 

Depending upon the economic climate of the year in question price swings of up to 15% or more are not uncommon.  

 

Additionally interest rates are typically lower once demand eases in the fall and winter months which helps to add to the overall savings one can realize when they purchase a home during this time period.

 

It has been stated over and over in the McKinney, Dallas area market that buyers make their equity when they BUY as opposed to when they sell like in California and other U.S. markets. If you buy during the "off" months from late August through March you can help yourself lock in the lowest possible purchase price and hence a probable future equity position in your new home should you sell.

 

2008 is a Presidential election year. Election years, especially when there is uncertainty in the air about the direction our country will pursue seems to amplify the down cycle in real estate transactions and home sales prices. How this will affect our local market during 2008 is anyone's guess.

 

During the 2004 Presidential election the Q4 market was non-existent and this lead to some really sharp discounting which sparked a strong buying surge in January 2005 when an incredible number of homes sold. One thing is clear the slow down in new home construction in the Dallas Area market will certainly reduce supply and help to stabilize falling new home prices.

 

If you are trying to find a great new home bargain, the fall and winter of 2007/2008 may be your best opportunity for years to come.

 

 

 

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